Analysis of the development status and future trends of my country’s energy industry

Analysis of the development status and future trends of my country’s energy industry

The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is a critical period for my country to move from building a well-off society in an all-round way to basically realizing socialist modernization. It is a period of strategic opportunities for actively responding to changes in major domestic social contradictions and profound changes in the international economic and political landscape. The 14th Five-Year Plan starts and ends in 2021-2025, and is the first five-year plan to start a new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way. The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is the historical intersection of “two centenary years”. This time is at the turning point of the importance of the development of the Chinese nation. China is transitioning from the old normal to the new normal, from high-speed growth to high-quality A critical period for development and transformation.

Looking forward to the “14th Five-Year Plan”, a new round of global industrial division of labor and trade patterns will accelerate reshaping, and my country’s industrial development has entered an important window period from scale growth to quality improvement. The “14th Five-Year Plan” period is also an extremely critical period for my country’s energy development. Energy is an important material basis for human survival and development, and an indispensable basic condition for the development of modern society. It is related to the national economy and people’s livelihood and national security. It is essential to the prosperity and development of the country, the improvement of people’s lives, and the long-term stability of society.

With the rapid development of my country’s economy and the significant increase in social productivity, my country’s energy sector has undergone earth-shaking changes and achieved great achievements that have attracted worldwide attention. Energy production has continued to overcome difficulties, achieved leapfrog development, and energy consumption has continued to rise Historical improvement. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the country has thoroughly implemented the new development concept, fully grasped the new requirements for the development of the energy industry in the new era, and continuously strengthened the implementation of various energy saving and consumption reduction policies. my country’s energy industry has made new progress and the energy structure has been significantly optimized. The effect of energy saving and consumption reduction is huge.

1. The development status of the energy industry during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

(1) Continuous improvement of energy policy to promote the development of energy industry

During the 1950s and 1970s, energy development received attention. From the “First Five-Year Plan” to the “Fifth Five-Year Plan”, the state has made specific arrangements for the development of energy industries such as electric power, coal, and petroleum, and proposed to economize on the use of electric power, coal, and petroleum. Since the reform and opening up, on the basis of continuously strengthening the development of energy resources and infrastructure construction, my country has paid more attention to the quality and efficiency of energy development. Conserve and develop simultaneously, put conservation in the first place, optimize the energy structure, actively develop new energy, promote the development of energy technology, and improve energy efficiency.

After entering the new century, facing the increasingly intensified resource constraints and the prominent ecological and environmental constraints, my country adheres to the basic national policy of saving resources and protecting the environment, actively transforms the economic development mode, continuously increases energy conservation, and uses energy consumption per unit of GDP as an indicator Constraint indicators have been written into the “Eleventh Five-Year”, “12th Five-Year” and “13th Five-Year” Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. “13th Five-Year Plan” and “Energy Development Strategy Action Plan (2014-2020)”, “Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (2016-2030)” and other programmatic documents, and “Energy Technology Revolution Innovation Action Plan (2016- 2030)”, “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development” and other special documents. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, in the face of new trends in international energy development and new changes in the energy supply and demand pattern, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core has foresighted, adhered to the concept of green development, vigorously promoted the construction of ecological civilization, and put forward the strategic thinking of “energy revolution” , Pointed out the direction and clarified goals for my country’s energy development, and promoted new progress in the energy industry.


(2) The total amount of energy continues to expand, and it has become the world’s largest energy producer

my country’s energy production has gradually changed from weak to strong, and its production capacity and level have been greatly improved. It has become the world’s largest country in energy production. It has basically formed an energy production system driven by coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy, which has given full play to its solidity. A strong foundational guarantee function. In 2018, my country’s total energy production reached 3.77 billion tons of standard coal, the highest value in history, an increase of 157.8 times over 1949, an average annual increase of 7.6%.

The production of major energy varieties has developed in an all-round way. Raw coal production reached 3.68 billion tons in 2018; crude oil production reached 190 million tons in 2018; natural gas production reached 160.27 billion cubic meters; power generation reached 7111.77 billion kilowatt hours.

With the rapid development of my country’s economy and the continuous improvement of people’s living standards, the overall energy consumption has shown a rapid growth trend. In 2018, my country’s total energy consumption reached 4.64 billion tons of standard coal, an increase of 3.45% over the same period last year.

The level of energy consumption per capita has increased significantly. In 2018, my country’s per capita energy consumption reached 3332 kilograms of standard coal. The elasticity of energy consumption continues to decline. In 2018, my country’s energy consumption elasticity coefficient was 0.50, which was 3.04 lower than the elasticity coefficient in 1954, and 0.49 and 0.01 lower than the average elasticity coefficients in 1954-2005 and 2006-2017, respectively.

(3) Continue to optimize the energy structure and accelerate the process of clean and low-carbon

With the continuous development and growth of my country’s total energy and accelerated changes in energy use patterns, the energy structure has continued to be greatly optimized and improved, and the process of clean and low-carbon has been accelerating.

The production structure is gradually shifting to cleaner. Affected by the characteristics of my country’s energy resource endowment “more coal, less oil and gas shortage”, raw coal accounts for a relatively high proportion of total energy production. However, the proportion of raw coal continues to decline in fluctuations, dropping to the lowest 69.3% in 2018; the proportion of crude oil has steadily increased to 24.8%, the highest in 1976, and then gradually declined, and dropped to 7.2% in 2018; natural gas, primary power and others The proportion of clean energy such as energy continued to increase overall. Natural gas accounted for 5.5% in 2018, and primary power and other energy sources increased to the highest level of 18.0% in 2018.

The consumption structure continued to be optimized and improved. Affected by the characteristics of resource endowments, the proportion of coal in my country’s total energy consumption has always remained the first, but the overall trend has shown a downward trend. In 2018, the total coal consumption reached 2.738 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for the lowest 59.0%; the proportion of oil Increasing in volatility, the total consumption in 2018 was 877 million tons of standard coal, accounting for 19%; the proportion of clean energy such as natural gas, primary power and other energy sources continued to increase, and the total consumption of natural gas in 2018 was 362 million tons Standard coal, accounting for 8%, the total consumption of primary power and other energy in 2018 was 664 million tons of standard coal, accounting for the highest proportion of 14%.

2. Energy development goals achieved during the 13th Five-Year Plan

(1) Control energy consumption within 5 billion tons of standard coal at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan

As my country’s economic development enters a new normal, the energy transition and reform have a long way to go. The problem of structural overcapacity of traditional energy production capacity is still prominent. Development quality and efficiency need to be improved urgently. Energy saving and consumption reduction are facing staged pressure, and the total energy consumption is effectively controlled and completed. The goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 15% in the 13th Five-Year Plan still needs to be continued. By the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, my country’s total energy consumption must be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal, and total coal consumption must be controlled within 4.1 billion tons.

(2) Plan to achieve goals at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan

In accordance with the overall requirements of the “Outline” of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” and comprehensively considering factors such as safety, resources, environment, technology, and economy, the main goals for energy development in 2020 are:

——Total energy consumption. The total energy consumption is controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal, and the total coal consumption is controlled within 4.1 billion tons. The electricity consumption of the whole society is expected to be 6.8 to 7.2 trillion kilowatt-hours.

——Energy security guarantee. Maintain the energy self-sufficiency rate above 80%, strengthen the strategic guarantee capacity for energy security, improve energy utilization efficiency, and raise the level of clean energy substitution.

-Energy supply capacity. To maintain steady growth in energy supply, domestic primary energy production is about 4 billion tons of standard coal, including 3.9 billion tons of coal, 200 million tons of crude oil, 220 billion cubic meters of natural gas, and 750 million tons of standard coal for non-fossil energy. The installed power generation capacity is about 2 billion kilowatts.

-Energy consumption structure. The proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 15%, the proportion of natural gas consumption will reach 10%, and the proportion of coal consumption will drop below 58%. The proportion of coal used for power generation in coal consumption has increased to more than 55%.

——Energy system efficiency. The energy consumption per unit of GDP has dropped by 15% compared to 2015, the average coal consumption of coal-fired power supply has dropped below 310 grams of standard coal per kWh, and the grid line loss rate has been controlled within 6.5%.

-Universal energy service. The level of public energy services has been significantly improved, basic energy services have been facilitated, and the gap between urban and rural residents’ per capita electricity consumption has been significantly reduced.

3. Development prospects of the energy industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period

At present, facing the profound adjustment of the international energy supply and demand pattern and a new round of energy technology reform in the ascendant, my country, as a major energy producer and consumer, must seize the opportunity, implement the new development concept, and focus on supply-side structural reforms. Promote energy consumption, supply, technology, institutional revolution and international cooperation, optimize the energy structure, and strive to make up for many shortcomings in energy development, such as resource and environmental constraints, low quality and efficiency, weak infrastructure, and lack of key technologies, and enhance the competitiveness of the energy industry , To build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system to better support the sustained and stable development of the Chinese economy.

my country’s energy development is in a critical period of transformation and reform, and is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. A very important development goal and task in the 14th Five-Year Plan is to focus on strengthening the clean energy industry and lay a firm foundation for achieving the goal of 20% of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption by 2030.

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, my country will still face a complex international and domestic energy revolution. For a long period of time in the future, coal will still occupy a dominant position in my country’s primary energy consumption. The level of clean and efficient utilization of traditional fossil energy will become an important task for my country’s energy development during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Energy production must not only optimize the inventory, and take the promotion of clean and efficient development and utilization of coal as the foothold and primary task of energy transformation and development; but also increase the increase, accelerate the increase in the proportion of renewable energy such as hydropower, wind, solar, and biomass, and ensure safety Efficiently develop nuclear energy and optimize the layout of energy production. Energy consumption must be controlled by both total and intensity, comprehensively use economics, laws and necessary administrative means, focus on key areas such as industry, construction, and transportation, and earnestly promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and accelerate the upgrading, transformation and cultivation of traditional industries by eliminating outdated production capacity. New kinetic energy, improve energy efficiency, and promote the formation of energy-saving lifestyles and social trends. At present, it is necessary to coordinate the heating of residents in winter and the prevention and control of air pollution.

In addition, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, accelerating technological innovation and system reform is still the key support for promoting sustainable energy development. We must concentrate our efforts on the development and utilization of renewable energy, especially new energy grid-connected technology, energy storage, and micro-grid technology to achieve breakthroughs, comprehensively build “Internet +” smart energy, improve grid system regulation capabilities, increase new energy consumption capabilities, and develop Advanced high-efficiency energy-saving technologies seize the commanding heights of energy technology competition. Actively promote mass entrepreneurship and innovation, further stimulate the creativity and innovation potential of the employees of energy industry enterprises and scientific research institutes, and cultivate more energy technology advantages and transform them into economic advantages. It is necessary to deepen the reform of energy marketization, through streamlining administration and delegating power, combining decentralization, optimizing services and reforming the oil and gas mineral rights system, and straightening out the power transmission and distribution links, etc., while deepening the reform of energy state-owned enterprises, actively support the private economy to enter the energy field. Improve the mechanisms and policies that encourage the development of distributed energy, straighten out the energy price system, restore the attributes of energy commodities, give full play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation and the government’s role, and build a fair and competitive energy market system.

Furthermore, with the continuous development of energy technology and economic level, my country’s energy system will move towards intelligence during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Energy technology innovation is accelerating, a new round of energy technology reform is in the ascendant, and new energy production and consumption models characterized by intelligence have begun to emerge. The development of smart grids is accelerating. Distributed smart energy supply systems have begun to be applied in industrial parks, urban communities, public buildings and private houses. The industrialization of new energy vehicles has accelerated. More and more energy users are participating in energy production and market transactions. New energy formats are beginning to take shape.

Finally, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, international energy cooperation will move to a higher level. The “Belt and Road” construction and the in-depth implementation of international capacity cooperation will promote wider, higher-level and deeper openness and integration in the energy sector, which will help strengthen international energy cooperation in all aspects and form a new pattern of energy security under open conditions. The process of low-carbon energy in the world has further accelerated, and natural gas and non-fossil energy have become the main directions of world energy development. The proportion of natural gas consumption in the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has exceeded 30%, and natural gas is expected to become the largest energy source in 2030. The proportion of renewable energy consumption in the EU has reached 15% and is expected to exceed 27% in 2030. The Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan has affected the development of nuclear power in the world, but under the premise of ensuring safety, major nuclear power countries and some emerging countries still regard nuclear power as the direction of low-carbon energy development.

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